Model backs Fitzpatrick over Rahm at 2026 Scottish Open
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- Scottie Scheffler sits as the +600 favorite at the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open as World No. 1, with defending champion Chris Gotterup, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele rounding out a loaded field serving as the final British Open tune-up
- Robert MacIntyre, listed at +3300, has thrived on his home Renaissance Club course, winning the event in 2024 and finishing runner-up in 2023
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated the Genesis Scottish Open 10,000 times after nailing 17 majors entering the weekend — including the 2026 Masters (its fifth straight) and last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship
- Matt Fitzpatrick is the model's top head-to-head pick over Jon Rahm at +110, backed by three top-6 finishes at this event in five years, 12 career appearances, and a projected top-four finish
- The same projection has Rahm barely cracking the top 10, a contrast underscored by his career-best seventh-place finish here across only two prior starts, including a 55th in 2022
- Chris Gotterup enters as defending champion immediately after winning the John Deere Classic on Sunday
Why it matters: The model's 17-major accuracy streak — covering a fifth consecutive Masters and last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship — gives the $10-to-$65,000 parlay concrete track-record weight, and the head-to-head Fitzpatrick call rides on a 3-top-6s-in-5-years stat versus Rahm's seventh-best-ever and active missed-cut form.
