BTC Stuck in Death Cross as Jobs Miss Cuts Hike Odds
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- Bitcoin trades at $64,938 (+1.06%) but remains stuck below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages in a death cross formation, with the medium-term trajectory still pointing down since the May peak near $80,000.
- The U.S. labor market shed 23,000 jobs in July — the first net loss since the pandemic-era recovery — sharply missing the 95,000 gain economists expected, with June revised down to 20,000 from 57,000 and May nearly halved.
- CME FedWatch cut September rate hike odds to 40% from 55% after the jobs miss, while Treasury yields fell and the dollar dropped 0.5%.
- Momentum is neutral: Bitcoin's RSI reads 54.6, with no fuel for a breakout and no washout either, as the price compresses below both moving averages in a sideways coil.
- The bull case requires Bitcoin to close above the 50-day EMA and $66,000 resistance to target the 200-day EMA and the $72,000 cloud top; a break below $60,000 points back to the July low of $58,000.
- On Myriad prediction market, traders price nearly 65% odds that Bitcoin drops to $55K before any recovery toward $84K, with those odds barely moving over the past week.
Why it matters: The weak jobs report gave Bitcoin the macro cover to rally — softer Fed, weaker dollar — but the death cross says the chart hasn't reclaimed its trend. For traders, $65K is now the line: above the 50-day, the July chop looks like base-building; below $60K, it confirms the bear flag back to $58,000.
