Experts Declare Trump's Iran War a 'Devastating Defeat'
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- John Mearsheimer (University of Chicago) said Trump "lost the war" against Iran, calling it a "devastating defeat," and argued US escalation threats ring hollow because America is out of munitions and Gulf allies refuse escalation over Iranian threats to destroy oil facilities and desalination plants.
- Vali Nasr (Johns Hopkins SAIS) said Iran is now "in the driver's seat" and that "the period where you can basically pressure Iran into submission... is gone," adding Iran is "very comfortable demanding" concessions.
- Nasr pushed back on skeptics, saying Iran "is not overplaying its hand. It's just playing its hand."
- Daniel DePetris (Defense Priorities) wrote that the US has little choice but to accept Iran charging fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
- DePetris attributed the situation to Trump launching an unauthorized war more than five months ago, which handed Iran "the perfect excuse to leverage its geography" as a strategic card against future US military threats.
Why it matters: The US is being forced to accept Iran collecting shipping fees from tankers in the Strait of Hormuz — a concession three named experts trace directly to Trump's decision to launch an unprovoked war without Congressional authorization. The Strait has been "almost entirely shut down" since the US and Israel began bombing Iran in late February, and Iran now holds the leverage card it can play "whenever Trump threatens to accelerate military operations."
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