Analyst: Pay Off Iran to End War, Reopen Hormuz
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- The US has struck more than 13,000 targets in Iran in what the source calls Trump's "reckless war," with Iran using thousands of long-range drones and missiles based deep in its territory to hold a stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz.
- The author recommends paying Iran off: granting significant economic relief in exchange for Iran halting attacks on shipping and neighbors, and freezing its nuclear program at no enrichment under the recent memorandum of understanding.
- Trump has threatened to attack Iran's power plants and civilian infrastructure, which the source characterizes as a probable war crime that would further erode Washington's global standing without changing Iranian policy.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE are advancing pipeline projects to carry an additional 4 million barrels per day, on top of 5 million already rerouted, as part of a longer-term strategy to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
- China's oil consumption is projected to drop 4.9% year-on-year in 2026, and more than 20 countries across five continents have announced new clean energy initiatives since the war began, according to the source.
- Iran's missile and drone programs have been set back by four rounds of heavy US and Israeli strikes since 2024, though the source notes Iran can still threaten the strait with its remaining arsenal.
- The US has alienated allies through 18 months of treating them "like vassals," threatening territorial integrity, imposing unilateral tariffs, and launching the war without consultations, leaving no international coalition to help reopen Hormuz.
Why it matters: The US has struck 13,000+ targets without breaking Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, and the source says escalation would drive oil and gas prices higher, destabilize markets, and trigger a global recession. The proposed Iran payoff buys time for Saudi/UAE pipeline projects adding 4 million barrels/day and clean energy shifts across 20+ countries to erode Iran's leverage.
