US-Iran strikes over Strait of Hormuz expose limits of Trump strategy
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- US airstrikes on Iran hit 13,000 targets in the first six weeks of war without forcing Tehran to surrender, former Trump-era official David Schenker of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said, calling the attacks a repeat of failed first-week strikes
- Iran continues launching missiles and drones at ships in the Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of global oil normally passes — despite Trump's escalation, with the renewed violence breaking an interim ceasefire and causing additional American troop deaths
- Marco Rubio told reporters Washington remains "open to a diplomatic solution," saying Iran "sends signals that they want to talk" even as its forces attack shipping, and confirming Trump is focused on retaliating for US troop deaths, alleged ceasefire violations, and ship attacks
- Air power alone cannot dislodge Iran's dispersed mobile missile threat, retired Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall warned, noting that "the easy targets are pretty much gone" since the war began February 28 and that airstrikes typically must be coupled with ground or naval operations
- Iran released an Iranian-American woman last week who had been barred from leaving the country — a gesture CSIS's Mona Yacoubian read as potential goodwill suggesting an off-ramp may still exist
- Houthi rebels expanding their newly announced Saudi maritime embargo into a full shutdown of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could create "a perfect storm of disruption" for the global economy, Yacoubian warned
Why it matters: Despite bombing 13,000 targets, the US has not forced Iran to release a strait carrying a fifth of global oil — meaning continued fighting drives up US petrol prices and adds American casualties while offering no clear diplomatic exit before midterm elections. Former diplomat Alan Eyre called the administration "flustered" with no coherent strategy beyond escalating airstrikes, and ground troops remain politically untenable.
