Trump May Need Iran Concession to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
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- Trump may need to compromise with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil normally flows; Iran insists on some measure of control after thousands of US strikes left it still able to threaten shipping with drones and missiles.
- The potential deal would route ships into the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled channel and out through an Omani-controlled channel, though the Trump administration strongly opposes any arrangement that includes fees or tolls.
- At least two ships were hit in the Strait of Hormuz in the past week; transits rose to 84 last week from 45 the week prior but remain far below the typical 700+ weekly before the crisis, per Lloyd's List Intelligence.
- Trump acknowledged that some munitions are "a little bit tighter" while claiming others are in "virtually unlimited supply," after a Washington Post report of his frustration with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over shrinking advanced weapons inventories.
- About two-thirds of US adults say the war with Iran has not been worthwhile, per an AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll from late July — including roughly 37% of Republicans.
- Sen. Mark Kelly said the weapons shortfall stems from a war that struck more than 14,000 targets without a clear goal, arguing the target list "maybe would have been 500" with a defined strategy.
- Trump cited "Denuclearization of Iran" among his accomplishments in a post claiming his polling numbers are "the best they have ever been" — a claim the AP report characterizes as dubious given that job growth has slowed considerably in his second term.
Why it matters: The US has struck more than 14,000 targets in Iran yet Tehran can still fire drones and missiles at commercial vessels, with strait traffic still down roughly 88% from pre-crisis levels. Trump faces a choice between accepting Iran's terms on Hormuz or absorbing continued economic damage, and two-thirds of Americans already say the war wasn't worthwhile — including 37% of Republicans ahead of the midterms.
