Trump Weighs Dropping Nuclear Deal for Hormuz Victory
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- Trump may abandon nuclear negotiations and accept a face-saving end to the conflict if Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, having privately told senior aides he could walk away without a nuclear deal, per The Wall Street Journal.
- Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr laid out sweeping conditions for reopening the strait: a permanent end to the war, lifting the US naval blockade, American force withdrawal, removal of all sanctions, release of frozen assets, war reparations, and an end to US threats against Iran's regional allies.
- Trump's exit calculus is shaped by domestic pressure—midterms are less than three months away and petrol prices remain significantly elevated since the war began in late February, while he told reporters an Iran deal was "imminent" and shared a social media post titled "Donald Trump Won the Iran War."
- Vice President JD Vance said the administration would keep pressuring Tehran and continue extracting oil and gas from the Middle East, adding: "We're in the middle of the game."
- Trump is betting the nuclear threat is already contained—after the US destroyed three major Iranian nuclear facilities in May 2025, he told aides Iran cannot restart its program during his presidency, and he told a NATO summit in July: "We've already got the nuclear material, because it's so far underground."
- Financial concessions are emerging as the central obstacle: Iran seeks billions in reparations and frozen asset releases, while Trump has vowed not to hand taxpayer money to Tehran—though US officials told the Journal an agreement may require unfreezing some Iranian assets.
- The June precedent complicates talks: Washington granted oil sanctions waivers as part of an interim ceasefire last June, but that collapsed after Iran attacked ships in the strait and the US restored sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
Why it matters: With midterms under three months away and petrol prices still elevated, Trump is redefining 'victory' as reopening the strait rather than securing a nuclear deal—yet Iran's reparations, sanctions relief, and force withdrawal demands, plus the collapse of a similar June ceasefire, mean any deal's financial cost could hand Trump a fresh political headache.
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