Australia’s next summer isn’t guaranteed to be the hottest yet – but it’s looking likely | Milton Speer and Lance M Leslie
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- Sydney and Melbourne recorded their warmest-ever starts to winter, with daily observations showing above-average June temperatures almost every day, while Adelaide, Hobart, and Canberra also posted mild starts and Perth was the only southern capital with typical June temperatures.
- The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts abnormally warm conditions to continue for at least the coming weeks, with long dry periods likely in late winter and spring following the recent El Niño development.
- The UK recorded its hottest-ever June day on 26 June at 37.3°C, surpassing the previous record of 36.1°C set in 1976, while France, Spain, Italy, and Germany reached or exceeded 40°C during the same heatwave.
- The authors' research linked the unseasonable warmth to warming of Earth's atmosphere and oceans, which has shifted southern hemisphere jet streams and storm paths poleward, producing more high-pressure systems and cloudless skies over southern Australia.
- Pacific Ocean temperatures off Australia's subtropical east coast are well above average, driving Tasman Sea high-pressure systems to direct warm, humid air over south-east Australia and lift daily minimum temperatures.
- Melbourne's catchment level sits at 64% and falling — the lowest since the Tinderbox drought of 2017-19 — leaving the city particularly exposed because it sits in the rain shadow of the Great Dividing Range.
- Forecasters are warning south-east Australia to expect hotter, drier conditions this El Niño year, suggesting record heatwaves, droughts and extreme bushfire danger are likely, though the southern annular mode could still bring more cold fronts.
Why it matters: Melbourne's catchment is already at 64% and falling — its lowest since the 2017-19 Tinderbox drought — and the city enters an El Niño summer that forecasters warn could deliver record heat, drought, and bushfire danger to south-east Australia. With poleward-shifted jet streams and warmer-than-average Pacific waters already steering humid heat over the region, water managers and emergency services face compounding pressure before peak fire season arrives.
