Rubio targets Beijing as ASEAN ministers meet in Manila
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- ASEAN foreign ministers and partners (US, China, India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Russia, UK, EU) gathered in Manila on Tuesday, with the resumed US-Iran conflict shadowing discussions about Strait of Hormuz energy supplies, inflation, and global growth; ministers will also hold an informal consultation on Myanmar, where the civil war has killed an estimated 100,000 people since the 2021 military coup.
- The Philippines accused China's Coast Guard of striking a Philippine navy personnel on the head with a baton near Second Thomas Shoal on Monday; China called the claim "false" while the US State Department condemned China's "dangerous and aggressive" actions.
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio published an opinion piece in Philippine newspapers reaffirming freedom of navigation and reiterating that the 2016 arbitral ruling invalidating China's South China Sea claims was "final and binding."
- Rubio warned — without naming China — that if those waters "fall under the control of a power willing to use commerce as a geopolitical weapon," both the US and ASEAN states would face "dire new threats."
- ASEAN and China have spent nearly 10 years trying to conclude a code of conduct for the South China Sea without resolution.
- Australia announced a further $6.7 million contribution to a drone package for the Philippine Coast Guard, including long-range and underwater drone capabilities and training.
Why it matters: The Manila meeting tests whether ASEAN can simultaneously navigate US-China rivalry and an unresolved Myanmar crisis, with energy security worries from the US-Iran conflict layered on top. Australia's $6.7 million drone package signals concrete allied backing for the Philippines' maritime posture as the South China Sea code of conduct negotiations near their 10-year mark without a deal.
