Rubio Warns China as ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet in Manila
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- ASEAN foreign ministers from 11 members and major partners convene in Manila starting Tuesday, with US-Iran conflict, the Myanmar civil war, and South China Sea tensions on the agenda.
- The US-Iran conflict injects uncertainty into discussions about energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, inflation, and global growth, per Philippines spokesperson Dominic Xavier Imperial.
- ASEAN's Myanmar peace initiative struggles to gain traction five years after its post-coup launch, with the civil war killing an estimated 100,000 people.
- The Philippines accused China's Coast Guard of striking a navy personnel on the head with a baton near Second Thomas Shoal on Monday; China's Coast Guard called the accusation "false" while the US State Department condemned the "dangerous and aggressive" actions.
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio published an opinion piece in Philippine newspapers warning freedom of navigation is "by no means guaranteed" and reiterated the 2016 arbitral ruling invalidating China's South China Sea claims, which Beijing rejects.
- Australia announced an additional $6.7 million contribution to a drones package for the Philippine Coast Guard, including long-range and underwater drone capabilities and training.
Why it matters: With the US explicitly reinforcing its alliance commitments to the Philippines, China still rejecting the 2016 arbitral ruling, and ASEAN's own South China Sea code of conduct stalled for nearly a decade, the dispute is increasingly managed through bilateral US and allied support — concretely evidenced by Australia's $6.7 million drone package.
