Scheffler +550 Favorite in Model's 2026 Masters Sim
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- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has previously nailed 16 majors entering the weekend — including three in 2025 and four consecutive Masters — and now projects the 2026 Masters leaderboard after 10,000 simulations.
- Scottie Scheffler is the +550 favorite but the source flags rust as a concern: he hasn't competed since mid-March due to the birth of his second child, marking the first time in his career he's made zero PGA Tour starts between the Players and the Masters.
- Jon Rahm (+1000), the 2023 Masters champion, is given a 10.5% chance of winning and a 41.3% chance of finishing top 5 by the model, after not placing worse than fifth in any event this season.
- Rory McIlroy (+1300) is attempting to become the fourth golfer to win back-to-back green jackets, but hasn't won in 14 PGA Tour starts since his 2025 Masters triumph; he still leads the tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and off-the-tee.
- Bryson DeChambeau is the second favorite at +1000, riding consecutive LIV Golf victories, though he has never finished better than fifth at Augusta National.
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200) and Cameron Young (+2200) carry recent momentum — Fitzpatrick with a win and runner-up in his last two starts, Young with a win and a third — yet neither has cracked the top 5 at the Masters.
- The model is targeting two longshots at +4000 or greater, including one priced around +8000, as potential stunning contenders at Augusta.
Why it matters: The model that has nailed four straight Masters gives defending champion McIlroy (+1300) a tough path — no wins in 14 starts since his 2025 breakthrough — while top favorite Scheffler (+550) faces genuine rust concerns after a six-week layoff. With three players who have never finished top 5 at Augusta filling the second tier of odds, the betting market reflects real uncertainty about who handles the course's history.
