SportsLine Model Backs Under in WKU vs. New Mexico State — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- Western Kentucky (1-3) and New Mexico State (1-3) open Conference USA play Thursday at 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network at Aggie Memorial Stadium, with both teams' only wins coming against FCS Mercyhurst by similar margins.
- New Mexico State is a 2.5-point home favorite, with both teams entering 2-2 against the spread; the total opened at 52.5 and has climbed roughly five points, which the model considers inflated.
- SportsLine's projection model ran the matchup 10,000 times and recommends the Under at 57.5, projecting 55 total points — noting WKU averages just 11.3 PPG against FBS competition while NMSU averages 18.
- Western Kentucky's non-conference schedule included Georgia and Indiana (both top-5), while last season WKU led Conference USA in scoring offense and NMSU finished second-to-last in the conference.
- The SportsLine model enters Week 5 on a 34-25 run on top-rated CFB picks and a 32-24 mark on all top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players per the article.
Why it matters: For bettors using SportsLine's model, the Under pick carries a stated 60%+ confidence on the spread side; the call leans on each team's offensive limitations (WKU's 11.3 PPG vs. FBS, NMSU's second-to-last C-USA scoring finish last year) rather than home-field edge, making this a totals-driven play despite the short spread.
Ask SkimNews
