College football score predictions for Week 6, 2026: Model backing Kentucky (+8.5) against LSU — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model projects LSU to beat Kentucky 25-21 in Week 6, with the simulation backing Kentucky (+8.5) to cover in 53% of 10,000 runs
- The Under (50.5) hits comfortably in the model, with the projected 46 total points falling several points short of the line
- Kentucky has won and covered three straight under head coach Will Stein, including outright upset wins over SEC foes South Carolina and Texas A&M
- Lane Kiffin's LSU is favored to win on the road but fails to cover the double-digit spread in the model's projection
- No. 6 Alabama hosts No. 2 Georgia at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday as a 1.5-point home favorite, a 4-point swing from Georgia's -2.5 opening line
- Other ranked Week 6 matchups include No. 13 Oregon (-11.5) vs No. 21 UCLA, USC at Penn State (-1.5), Texas at Oklahoma (+8.5) in the Red River Rivalry, and unbeaten Indiana at Nebraska (+7)
Why it matters: Bettors following the model have tracked a 40-35 profitable run on top-rated college football picks; the Kentucky-LSU projection matters because the model sees real upset value on a 53% cover rate despite LSU winning outright — a tight enough margin that bettors laying the 8.5 points are paying for a road favorite the simulations treat as essentially a toss-up.
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