BTC put/call ratio drops to 0.52 ahead of FOMC
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- Bitcoin options put/call open-interest ratio fell to ~0.52 from ~0.76 in late June as calls gained share, according to Glassnode.
- Large traders are accumulating $70,000 strike calls and bull call spreads, signaling expectations of upside in the spot price.
- 25-delta skew dropped to ~4% at the one-week tenor while three- and six-month contracts hold at 11-12%, showing traders still buying later-year protection while largely abandoning near-term hedges.
- Implied volatility sits at 34.3% for one week versus 40.8% for six months—an upward-sloping curve that the source notes is unusual ahead of a scheduled macro event.
- Markets price the odds of a July rate hike at roughly 15%, making the low near-term options pricing defensible on the base case.
- Bitcoin held near $65,000 through the past week, absorbing Thursday's $797 billion tech-stock selloff without major disruption.
Why it matters: With the put/call ratio this low and one-week skew at just 4%, the options market has scant cushion if Wednesday's Fed statement or projections surprise—positioning that thin tends to amplify moves rather than absorb them, meaning a hawkish tilt or dot-plot shift could trigger outsized BTC volatility despite the ~85% odds the Fed holds.
