Model Backs Giants, Seahawks for Week 4 NFL Picks — SkimNews
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- New York Giants (+2.5) are projected by SportsLine's model to cover against the Arizona Cardinals in more than 50% of simulations; the Giants lead the NFL in time of possession on offense and starting field position on defense, while Arizona is just 5-9 ATS after a loss since last year
- Seattle Seahawks (-7) are picked to cover against the Los Angeles Chargers, who have dropped six straight games and scored 17 or fewer in each; Justin Herbert has 10 touchdowns versus 11 turnovers over his last 10 games, and Seattle hasn't lost at home in a calendar year
- Week 4 features the NFL's first London game of the 2026 season — Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders — with Indy favored by 3.5 points
- The Baltimore Ravens are 11.5-point favorites over the winless Tennessee Titans, and the Minnesota Vikings are favored by 10 points over the 0-3 Miami Dolphins
- Monday's New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons matchup — with New Orleans favored by 2.5 — marks the 20th anniversary of the 2006 'Domecoming' in New Orleans
- SportsLine's model, which has returned more than $7,000 for $100 players since inception, enters Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season on a 54-43 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024
- Week 4 is the final full 16-game slate before bye weeks begin in Week 5
Why it matters: The model's picks carry weight given its $7,000+ track record and 54-43 run on top-rated picks, but the underlying game analysis offers the real value: the Chargers' six-game losing streak paired with Herbert's negative turnover differential makes the 7-point spread testable, and the Giants' league-leading time-of-possession edge gives them a structural cover angle as short home 'dogs. Week 4 is also the last full board before byes thin out the weekly slate.
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