College football score predictions for Week 4, 2026: Model backs Oklahoma (+13.5) against Georgia — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model projects a 28-20 Georgia win over Oklahoma, with the Sooners (+13.5) covering in 56% of simulations and the Under 44.5 hitting 55% of the time.
- Oklahoma's defense has yet to surrender more than 17 points in any game this season, making them the toughest defensive unit Georgia has faced to date.
- Oklahoma stumbled into the matchup at 1-1, losing at Michigan and then edging New Mexico State 14-6 despite being a 21.5-point favorite.
- John Mateer and Isaiah Sategna are projected by the model to generate enough offense for Oklahoma to stay within the 13.5-point spread.
- Arch Manning leads the top-ranked Texas Longhorns to Knoxville to face No. 14 Tennessee as a 5.5-point road favorite — nearly 30 years after uncle Peyton Manning's final game at Neyland Stadium.
- The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and sits at 22-19 on top-rated college football picks this season, having been upgraded for 2026 to better factor in the transfer portal.
Why it matters: The model is 22-19 (53.7%) on top-rated picks this season — a narrow edge that makes spread-specific projections like Oklahoma +13.5 more valuable than outright picks. At -13.5, Georgia backers need a blowout, but Oklahoma's defensive floor (≤17 points allowed in all three games) suggests this stays tighter than the line expects.
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