College football score predictions for Week 4, 2026: Model backs Oklahoma (+14) against Georgia — SkimNews
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- SportsLine model projects Georgia 28-20 over Oklahoma, with the Sooners (+14) covering in 56% of 10,000 simulations and the Over (44.5) hitting 55% of the time
- SportsLine model is 22-19 on top-rated college football picks this season and runs 10,000 simulations per FBS game, with the 2026 version upgraded to better factor in the transfer portal
- Oklahoma's defense hasn't allowed more than 17 points in any game this season — the toughest unit Georgia will have faced — and that's the linchpin of the model keeping the Sooners within the 14-point spread
- Oklahoma enters 1-1 after a loss at Michigan and a 14-6 escape over New Mexico State despite being a 21.5-point favorite
- Arch Manning leads top-ranked Texas to Tennessee (-4.5) at Neyland Stadium, nearly 30 years after uncle Peyton Manning's final game there
- Week 4 slate also features Oregon (-3) at USC, Michigan (-5.5) hosting Iowa, Ohio State (-27.5) vs. Illinois, and Alabama (-12.5) vs. South Carolina
Why it matters: Oklahoma's elite defense — allowing no more than 17 points all season — is the linchpin of the model's confidence, and it's the toughest unit Georgia will have faced. With the model profitable at 22-19 on top-rated picks, bettors backing the Sooners (+14) get a simulation-backed edge in a game the public likely prices as a Georgia blowout.
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