Flávio Bolsonaro’s advance in Brazil’s election is grim jolt for climate campaigners — SkimNews
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- Flávio Bolsonaro won 47% in Brazil's first-round presidential vote, outpacing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (44.2%) and advancing to an October 25 runoff — no first-round leader has ever lost a Brazilian presidential runoff.
- Jair Bolsonaro's four-year presidency drove a 59.5% increase in Amazon deforestation (roughly 2 billion trees destroyed); his son has pledged to free him from prison and let him hold any role in a Flávio administration.
- Flávio Bolsonaro backed a 2019 bill eliminating native-vegetation conservation requirements for Amazon landowners, and his campaign manifesto entirely omitted the climate crisis, while Lula's government reduced Amazon deforestation by nearly 50%.
- Sunday's vote handed Bolsonarists control of seven of nine Brazilian Amazon states, with an eighth winnable in runoffs; Flávio's brother Carlos and mother-in-law Michelle were elected to the Senate.
- Pro-environment candidates were routed across the ballot — former Indigenous affairs chief Joenia Wapichana lost her Congressional bid, former environment minister Marina Silva lost her Senate race, and only 2 of 57 Indigenous candidates won seats.
- Most first-round eliminated candidates were right-wing, making their supporters likelier to shift to Flávio than to Lula, narrowing the incumbent's path in the runoff.
Why it matters: If Flávio holds his lead, Brazil's Amazon policy would reverse course: his father's tenure produced a 59.5% deforestation increase (~2 billion trees), and Flávio's own platform eliminates native-vegetation requirements and ignores climate. With Bolsonarists now controlling seven of nine Amazon states and the runoff's right-wing eliminated candidates tilting toward Flávio, the runoff is effectively a referendum on deforestation policy — and history favors the first-round leader.
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