Purdue Favored Over Washington as Model Backs Under — SkimNews
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- Purdue (3-3, 2-1 Big Ten) hosts Washington on Friday at 8 p.m. ET at Ross-Ade Stadium, riding a two-game Big Ten winning streak after a 41-13 rout of Minnesota behind RB Fame Ijeboi's career-high 195 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
- Washington (3-3, 0-3 Big Ten) enters still seeking its first conference win after a 41-24 home loss to Iowa, with starter QB Demond Williams Jr. unlikely to play because of a rib injury.
- Backup QB Elijah Brown filled in for Williams against Iowa and went 28-of-39 for 251 yards and three touchdowns, a performance the source describes as solid despite the loss.
- Purdue is a 3.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 50.5 in the latest lines.
- SportsLine's model simulated the game 10,000 times and projects 49 combined points, making the Under 50.5 the value at 56% frequency — even though the Over has cashed in four of five Purdue games this season.
- Washington's offense hasn't topped 24 points against any FBS opponent this season, a ceiling the source cites as the key counterweight to Purdue's recent high-scoring trend.
- The model enters Week 7 on a 48-40 run on top-rated college football picks, yielding more than $400 for $100 players.
Why it matters: For bettors, the model spots a split between Purdue's offensive surge and Washington's 24-point FBS ceiling, backing the Under 50.5 despite the Over hitting in four of five Purdue games. With backup QB Elijah Brown replacing the injured Demond Williams Jr., Washington's scoring ceiling looks unlikely to rise on Friday.
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