Goldman: September Fed Rate Hike 'Very Unlikely'
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Goldman Sachs said a September Federal Reserve interest-rate increase is "very unlikely," in a note from Chief Economist Jan Hatzius reported by Bloomberg.
- Hatzius cited soft retail sales, employment figures, and slowing inflation as the basis for lowering the odds, writing that inflation news is "more likely to improve further than to deteriorate anew."
- Goldman also said market pricing for the federal funds rate remains "too hawkish" relative to its baseline forecasts.
- Bitcoin is trading around $63,500–$63,600, up about 1% since midnight UTC, and has been locked in the $62,000–$66,000 range for over a month.
- Traders are pricing in just a 30.6% chance the Fed raises its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%–4% range, per CME FedWatch data, with the majority expecting the status quo.
- The article frames the dynamic as bullish for bitcoin: rate hikes hurt risk-on assets (the 2022 tightening slide), while rate cuts have historically preceded crypto rallies (the March 2020 COVID recovery).
Why it matters: For bitcoin traders, the Goldman call reinforces a near-term ceiling: with only a 30.6% chance of a September hike baked in and inflation cooling, the catalyst for a breakout above the month's $62K–$66K range still hinges on whether the Fed actually holds or pivots to cuts — not on hawkish surprises Goldman now deems unlikely.
Ask SkimNews
