Fuel on the fire: why oil companies are profiting as the world gets dangerously hot
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- Big Oil — Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron and seven other listed firms — plans a 14% production increase between 2024 and 2030, per the LSE's Climate Transition Centre, exceeding even the IEA's business-as-usual scenario.
- BP watered down its 40% fossil-fuel production cut to 25% in 2023, then cut renewable energy investments by $3bn while raising oil and gas spending to $10bn annually.
- The six European oil majors saw combined profits rise 43% to $22bn — the highest since 2022 — as most backtracked on green energy commitments and ramped up production.
- Equinor lifted its oil and gas output target by 6% by 2030, while Petrobras plans to supply 21% more oil by 2030.
- The IEA warns that no new long-term oil and gas exploration or development projects can proceed if the Paris agreement's below-2C goal is to be met.
- Exxon plans a 25% production increase and Chevron a 15% increase by 2030, with political cover from the Trump administration.
- A new severe El Niño — forecast as one of the worst in decades — is now confirmed, with the Amazon, polar regions and other systems approaching dangerous tipping points.
Why it matters: Collective oil company plans push production beyond the IEA's business-as-usual scenario, which already projects 2.9C of warming — rendering the Paris agreement's below-2C goal functionally unreachable. European majors earned record profits while backtracking on green pledges, with BP's quarterly profits more than doubling under its new fossil-fuel-heavy strategy.
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