Model picks Lions, 49ers to cover Week 3 NFL spreads — SkimNews
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- Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens will meet in the first-ever NFL Rio Game in Brazil, with Dallas designated the home team but listed as 3-point underdogs at Rio de Janeiro.
- Buffalo Bills are 7-point favorites over the visiting Los Angeles Chargers, and the Seattle Seahawks are also 7-point favorites over the Washington Commanders, who are likely without quarterback Jayden Daniels (elbow).
- SportsLine's computer model backs the Detroit Lions (-6.5) to cover against the New York Jets, citing Detroit's 12-3 ATS record following a loss since 2023 — an 80% cover rate that leads the NFL.
- The model projects the San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) to cover at home versus the Arizona Cardinals, with San Francisco the only team ranking in the top 5 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
- Brock Purdy, 5-1 lifetime versus Arizona, is projected for 299 total yards and 2.6 touchdowns as San Francisco wins by double digits, with the Over hitting almost 60% of model simulations.
- Arizona enters off a 24-point home loss to a backup quarterback in Seattle and ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in both rushing and passing offense.
- The model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and enters Week 3 on a 53-41 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024, having produced well over $7,000 for $100 players since inception.
Why it matters: SportsLine's model is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since inception and on a 53-41 run dating back to 2024. Detroit's 80% ATS cover rate after losses (12-3 since 2023) makes the Lions -6.5 the model's most data-anchored play, while the 49ers -8.5 rests on San Francisco being the only team in the top 5 of both scoring offense and scoring defense — giving bettors two of the most statistically grounded spread plays of the week.
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