Week 3 NFL score predictions, picks: Model reveals projections from 10,000 simulations — SkimNews
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- SportsLine model simulates every Week 3 NFL game 10,000 times and entered the week on a 53-41 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024, with documented returns exceeding $7,000 for $100 bettors since inception.
- Rams vs. Broncos is the projected Sunday Night Football result at 22-21 in Denver, making the Broncos (+2.5) the pick against the spread 54% of the time and the Over 45.5 a lean 60% of the time.
- Los Angeles Rams will be without pass rusher Myles Garrett (knee) for several weeks and are still recovering from a 27-7 season-opening loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Melbourne, Australia — effectively their second road game in three weeks.
- Week 3 spreads on the board include Texans vs. Colts (+3, 42.5), Bengals vs. Steelers (+3.5, 42.5), and Chargers vs. Bills (-7, 50.5).
- Ravens vs. Cowboys in Brazil carries the highest total of the week at 52.5, while Titans vs. Giants has the lowest at 39.5 — a number that dropped four points after Jaxson Dart was injured on Monday.
- Bo Nix bounced back from Denver's 31-10 season-opening loss at Kansas City by completing 22 of 31 passes for 288 yards and one touchdown in a Week 2 win over Jacksonville.
- Week 3 slate features 14 Sunday matchups, with the model teasing one underdog upset it identifies but does not name in the article.
Why it matters: The Rams-Broncos pick carries concrete injury and travel context the article spells out — Los Angeles without Myles Garrett and playing a second road game in three weeks, Denver coming off a home win after a 31-10 opener loss. The model's accompanying ATS and Over percentages give bettors a direct position to take, and bettors comparing SportsLine with the CBS Sports computer model cited in a sibling headline get a second data point on the Week 3 slate.
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