Commentary: With its new leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, does Iran want – or need – a nuclear weapon?
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- Iran holds approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, theoretically sufficient for 10 nuclear warheads — far above the 3-5% enrichment needed for nuclear power plants.
- Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader, is reportedly far more interested in pursuing a nuclear weapon than his father, according to US intelligence cited in the commentary.
- Controlling commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has given Iran a new economic deterrent during the war, without drawing the unwanted attention an active nuclear programme would bring.
- The JCPOA: the IAEA verified Iran's compliance before the first Trump administration withdrew in 2018; Iran only resumed enriching above 20% after the US reimposed sanctions.
- Iran's June memorandum of understanding with the US included an agreement to "downblend" its enriched uranium, and Tehran had previously signalled openness to dilute its stockpile in exchange for sanctions relief.
- The Trump administration's intelligence community publicly acknowledged last year that Iran has not actively pursued a nuclear weapon for decades.
Why it matters: Iran now holds enough 60%-enriched uranium for 10 warheads and reportedly has a more hawkish supreme leader, yet the international community is focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz — leaving the harder question of nuclear containment unresolved. Any future deal beyond Hormuz would require US concessions greater than those in the JCPOA and a level of trust that, per the commentary, has all but evaporated.
