Bitcoin 'Calm Top' Set Off Just 2 of 11 Sell Signals: Galaxy
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- Galaxy Research (Thorn) found only 2 of 11 traditional topping indicators flashed at Bitcoin's October 2025 peak, and the widely followed Pi Cycle Top indicator failed to trigger for the first time ever.
- Bitcoin's MVRV ratio peaked at just 2.29 this cycle versus 2.93-5.91 in prior cycles, while the network's cost basis sits at 43.7% of ATH compared to ~17-34% in previous cycles — a muted top that Thorn says 'raises the floor.'
- Only 4 of 13 bottoming indicators have triggered so far, and the current drawdown is only ~8 months old versus the 12-13 month historical pattern between past cycle peaks and bottoms.
- Galaxy estimates a base-case bottom of $40,000-$46,000, a 'washout scenario' of $30,000-$37,000, and a shallower decline holding near $51,000-$54,000, but Thorn warns cost basis is reflexive — a 10-30% decline could drag the implied floor from ~$40k toward $28k.
- CryptoQuant places Bitcoin inside a valuation zone historically associated with major bear-market lows, with BTC trading near $59,000, roughly 9% above its realized price of $53,600.
- CryptoQuant demand data shows a combined weekly decline of 652,000 BTC across speculative futures and apparent spot demand — the sharpest contraction since January 2022 — with the firm's one-year demand gauge turning negative.
Why it matters: Galaxy's framework gives traders a concrete range: if historical timing holds (12-13 months post-peak vs. 8 months elapsed), Bitcoin still has months of drawdown potential ahead, with the $53,600 realized price serving as a critical inflection point. Thorn's reflexive cost-basis warning — where a real panic could pull the floor to $28,000 — means holders face scenarios nearly 50% below current levels.
