Trump underestimated Iran's resilience, limiting exit
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- US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initiated the conflict without a clear rationale, goals, or exit strategy, underestimating Iran's defensive capabilities.
- Iran has demonstrated unprecedented preparedness, striking US bases and Israel, and threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, challenging the US and Israeli belief in a quick military victory.
- Iran's resilience stems from decades of building a robust system of authority, governance, and security, supported by revolutionary Islamism, ideological rigidity, pragmatic flexibility, and a dedicated security apparatus.
- Prior to the war, Iran was under significant domestic pressure and international criticism, and was close to a nuclear deal mediated by the Omani foreign minister in late February.
Why it matters: The conflict's unexpected escalation could lead to a global oil and gas shortage if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
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