Texas vs. Texas State prediction, odds, time: Week 1 college football picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Texas Longhorns, ranked No. 4 and led by QB Arch Manning, open the 2026 season at home against Texas State on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET from Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin.
- Texas is a 29.5-point favorite over Texas State with an over/under of 59.5 in the latest Week 1 odds.
- Texas State enters under new head coach G.J. Kinne — a former Texas QB — and as a member of the revamped Pac-12 Conference, with QB Brad Jackson (21 TDs as a freshman last year) and two 1,000-yard receivers returning.
- SportsLine's model, on a 32-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since 2024, simulated the matchup 10,000 times and projects Under 59.5 total points — calling for 52 combined points.
- The model cites Texas's defense — which allowed only 20 ppg last year and now has new coordinator Will Muschamp — as the key factor pushing the scoring projection well below the posted line.
- One side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time in the model's simulations, with the specific side available only on SportsLine.
Why it matters: A 29.5-point spread paired with a model-projected total more than 7 points below the market line signals Texas's defense — newly coordinated by Will Muschamp — is expected to throttle a Texas State offense that ranked 12th nationally in scoring last year. For bettors, the SportsLine projection is on a 32-19 money-line run and giving a clear lean to the Under.
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