NOAA Confirms El Niño; Food Systems Brace for
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- NOAA officially declared that El Niño has begun, with calculations showing a high likelihood of a 'very strong' event defined as average Pacific surface temperatures jumping more than 2°C, though the World Meteorological Organization rejects the 'super El Niño' label some experts have adopted
- El Niño typically peaks around December or January, meaning the most significant impacts on global agriculture and food security may not arrive for months
- The 1877 El Niño was associated with famines across Asia, Brazil, and northern Africa that killed upward of 50 million people, according to Washington State University associate professor Deepti Singh, who noted colonial policies amplified the devastation
- The 2023-2024 El Niño was one of the five strongest ever recorded, contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record, and drove drought-fueled food insecurity across southern Africa
- India is projected to have a weaker monsoon that could reduce rice yields, southern Africa may see diminished maize production, and the southern United States from California to the eastern seaboard faces a wetter-than-normal year with potential flooding
- Farmers worldwide are already contending with fertilizer shortages and price hikes stemming from the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, compounding the coming El Niño disruptions
- Stanford's Jennifer Burney warned that adaptive policies may ensure there is 'enough food' but won't protect the livelihoods of farmers whose income depends on growing and selling crops
Why it matters: El Niño's most severe impacts typically arrive months after its official start, leaving farmers already squeezed by fertilizer shortages from the Iran war with limited runway to adapt. Burney's distinction matters: even policies that ensure 'enough food' can still leave the farmers who grow it economically devastated.
