El Niño is back with a vengeance – and fears of ‘Godzilla’ strength may be the least of our worries
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- NOAA declared El Niño conditions formed in the Pacific last week, placing a 63% chance of a "very strong" event by its peak near year-end; Australia's Bureau of Meteorology followed Tuesday, warning it would worsen the country's extreme heat and wildfires.
- The World Meteorological Organization used more measured language, arguing that a wide spread in model results made the storm's strength too early to call — while some scientists informally dubbed it a "super" or "Godzilla" El Niño based on the expected size of the temperature anomaly.
- Sonali McDermid, a climate scientist at New York University, said her worry is "not for the El Niño alone" but "the confluence of multiple stressors" — including an IMF warning that about half of the world's 68 poorest countries face debt distress, and high energy and fertiliser prices linked to the Iran war.
- The Famine Early Warning Systems Network projected 115-125 million people will need urgent food assistance by December, with famine risks flagged in Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia — a concern sharpened by gutted US overseas aid and shrinking European development budgets.
- The UN's World Food Programme and FAO issued their first joint anticipatory appeal on Thursday, seeking $202m to help 8.8 million people with drought-resistant seeds, flood defences and cash transfers — but are $167m short of that target.
- A European Commission Joint Research Centre study published Monday warned El Niño-related shocks may "increase the likelihood of compound and non-linear systemic impacts," transmitting from drought and heat stress through agriculture, labour productivity, water and hydropower into higher food and energy prices and fiscal stress.
- The world has warmed by about 1.3C since the Industrial Revolution, and temperatures are rising so fast that the worst El Niño years of the recent past, including 1997-98, are far less hot than current La Niña years.
Why it matters: The countries most exposed to El Niño are simultaneously hit by debt distress, fertiliser and energy shocks from the Iran war, and shrinking US and European aid — and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network projects 115-125 million people needing urgent food assistance by December. The UN's $202m anticipatory appeal is currently $167m short, meaning preparation may arrive too late to avert crisis.
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