Inflation likely peaked for 2026 but will remain sticky, according to prediction markets — SkimNews
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- Kalshi traders forecast the September consumer price index at 3.6% year-over-year, matching FactSet consensus and up from August's 3.4% advance, with the data due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Speculators on Kalshi assign just under one-in-three odds that inflation sets new highs in 2026, even as year-over-year inflation previously peaked at 4.2% in May.
- Core inflation is predicted to hold at 2.4% year-over-year, also in line with FactSet economist estimates, with traders betting it stays elevated through the rest of 2026.
- Kalshi contracts put only a 6% chance on core inflation falling below 2.2% this year — a level it last sat below before the inflation surge that began in 2021.
- Traders on Kalshi see no quick reprieve: the consensus view is that inflation peaked for 2026 but will remain sticky rather than decline sharply in the near term.
Why it matters: The Kalshi signal lines up with FactSet's 3.6% September CPI consensus, suggesting Wednesday's BLS print is unlikely to surprise meaningfully in either direction. The more telling data point: with only a 6% chance on core dropping below 2.2% in 2026 — a level last seen before the 2021 surge — traders are pricing in inflation staying well above pre-pandemic norms for the foreseeable future.
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