Bitcoin wilts as oil and rates rise. Clarity Act odds tumble to 38%
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- Bitcoin fell to about $65,500, down roughly 0.7% since midnight UTC and pulling back from Wednesday's high near $66,700, with ether, solana, and XRP also trading lower.
- WTI crude futures climbed to $88.60/barrel on NYMEX — the highest level since June 11 — extending a steep rebound from below $70 and raising the prospect of a new inflationary impulse that could complicate central bank rate cuts.
- U.S. Treasury yields jumped sharply, with the two-year hitting 4.31% (highest since February 2025) and the benchmark 10-year reaching 4.66% (highest since May), raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold.
- The U.S. military deployed a B-1 long-range bomber on Tuesday to strike targets linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, per Axios, a clear escalation that suggests Washington may be preparing a broader campaign.
- Key Senate Democrats said the latest Clarity Act draft 'falls short' on ethics and other critical provisions; Polymarket odds of the bill's passage tumbled from 46% to 38%, even as Senator Bernie Moreno called the ethics language 'the most powerful in U.S. history.'
- Decrypt and NYT Business both lead on the embedded Trump angle the source only briefly touches — the Clarity Act's ethics provision bars the president from crypto ventures, but only through 2029, a carve-out most coverage is treating as the story's political flashpoint.
Why it matters: Risk assets are absorbing a synchronized squeeze: Bitcoin at $65,500 with WTI crude at $88.60 and the two-year Treasury yield at 4.31% — its highest since February 2025 — all hit in the same session, draining the bid for non-yielding assets. The Clarity Act's regulatory pathway just got harder too: Polymarket passage odds dropped 8 percentage points to 38% after Democratic criticism, leaving the bill's timeline genuinely uncertain rather than a matter of when.
