Bitcoin in late-stage bear market: Real Vision's Coutts
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- Jamie Coutts of Real Vision said Bitcoin is in the "late stages" of a bear market but warned that markets rarely follow historical patterns and that "all the trend indicators are obviously bearish."
- Bitcoin rose 4.45% over the past 30 days according to CoinMarketCap, though Coutts said weakening onchain fundamentals — not just tighter global liquidity — contributed to the fourth-quarter downturn.
- Coutts identified a bullish divergence on longer-time-frame momentum indicators as an early sign that selling pressure is easing, but stressed the signal does not technically confirm an exit from the bear market.
- Coutts said he is "more comfortable" with a $200,000 to $250,000 Bitcoin forecast in the next two to three years; his earlier models projected roughly $1 million by 2032-2033, contingent on required money printing.
- Coutts said the Bitcoin community must take decisive action on quantum computing risks by 2027, noting a major protocol upgrade would take five years — and called developers who dismiss the concern "on the wrong side of this."
- Coutts raised the open question of how AI agents will choose to store value as their wallets proliferate, asking whether they "make the same decisions as what humans have."
Why it matters: Coutts' $200,000-$250,000 outlook for the next two to three years now runs against a self-imposed 2027 deadline for the network to act on quantum computing risk — a five-year upgrade window that, if missed, would coincide exactly with the period he expects the price target to materialize.
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