Jobless claims near 57-year low; home sales jump 6.4% — SkimNews
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- Labor Department data showed initial unemployment claims slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 197,000 for the week ended Sept. 19, the lowest level since 1969, with the four-week moving average falling 1,750 to 202,250.
- Continuing claims rose 2,000 to 1.719 million for the week ended Sept. 12, while the Chicago Fed forecast the September unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%.
- New single-family home sales jumped 6.4% to a seasonally adjusted 684,000-unit annualized rate in August — the highest since December 2025 and well above the 615,000-unit forecast — driven by builder price cuts and incentives, per the Commerce Department.
- Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.03% this week, its highest since January 2025 and up more than 100 basis points since the Iran war started at the end of February.
- Federal Reserve officials raised the benchmark rate 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% last week, with CME's FedWatch showing investors pricing a 64.2% chance of another hike next month as energy-driven inflation pressures mount.
- FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said the economy is "firing on all cylinders" in mid-September thanks to AI capex spending, even as the Iran war pushes diesel to record highs and economists warn inflation will eventually restrain activity.
- Barclays senior economist Jonathan Millar warned that homebuilder incentives "do not last indefinitely," while the median new house price dropped 5.8% YoY to $393,700 and unsold inventory sat at 8.5 months' supply.
Why it matters: A near-57-year low in jobless claims gives the Federal Reserve cover to deliver another rate hike as soon as next month, with markets pricing a 64.2% probability of that move — but the 7.03% 30-year mortgage rate (up 100+ bps since the Iran war began) means any further tightening directly tightens the vise on a housing market already reliant on builder price cuts and an 8.5-month inventory overhang to clear units.
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