Russia’s Tuna Role Adds Sanctions Risk, Not Leverage — SkimNews
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- Russia is heavily dependent on China: a Carnegie Endowment estimate says Beijing accounts for more than 30% of Russian export revenue and over 40% of imports, while Russia represented just 3% of China’s exports and 5% of imports in 2024.
- Putin and Xi Jinping signed a 20 May 2026 joint statement saying South China Sea disputes should be settled through negotiations among directly involved states and opposing outside interference; China repeated the formula in July when replying to 14 governments.
- Russia and China declared on 4 February 2022 that strengthened cooperation was neither aimed at third countries nor affected by changes in the international environment involving them.
- Indonesia kept the Tuna rig operating until 19 November despite Beijing’s demand, even though Zarubezhneft held half of the block; Russia appeared in neither Reuters’ account nor a 2023 Interpreter analysis of the dispute.
- Harbour Energy sold its half of Tuna to Prime Group in May 2026, and Zarubezhneft told Indonesia’s deputy energy minister it was ready to resume work in June.
- Zarubezhneft was added to the UK sanctions list on 8 October as a Russian government-affiliated entity; sanctions imposed after 2022 had already delayed a final investment decision by making financing difficult.
- Indonesia and Xi recorded a “common understanding on joint development in areas of overlapping claims” in November 2024, but Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry later denied that the wording recognized the nine-dash line.
Why it matters: Indonesia’s Tuna project faces a concrete test before revival: the UK added Zarubezhneft to its sanctions list on 8 October, and sanctions had already made financing difficult. With China providing over 40% of Russia’s imports and Moscow backing Beijing’s dispute formula, Indonesia gains no protection from its Russian partner.
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