Bitcoin Decouples From Dollar and Stocks Ahead of Fed Hike — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin's 15-day correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index fell to +0.08 from -0.54 over 30 days, while its link to the S&P 500 dropped to 0.43 from 0.75, per CoinMarketCap head of research Alice Liu.
- The Clarity Act failed a key Senate procedural vote on Tuesday, pulling traders' focus away from traditional macro drivers and explaining the correlation breakdown, Liu said.
- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, with most investment banks forecasting additional hikes by year-end.
- Beta hedges pairing long bitcoin with short S&P 500 futures—reliable as recently as Monday—have become unreliable, and 'today's FOMC reaction may be swamped by regulatory follow-through,' Liu warned.
- Bitcoin broke below the $76,000 level in a range breakdown pattern, a bearish technical signal that often precedes further losses according to chart analysts.
- Crypto longs worth approximately $571 million were liquidated over the past 24 hours following the Clarity Act's defeat—the largest such flush since Aug. 22.
- Treasury yields and oil prices paused before the Fed decision, with the 10-year yield standing at 5% after briefly touching its highest level since 2007, per Reuters.
Why it matters: Bitcoin's decoupling from the Dollar Index and equities means traders can no longer rely on the macro hedges that worked for most of 2026, and with the Fed's 25 bp hike already priced in, Chair Kevin Warsh's tone—not the rate decision—will determine whether bitcoin reattaches to risk assets or keeps trading on Washington regulatory headlines.
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