Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction, odds, time: 2026 Week 4 college football Saturday picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- Florida enters as a 3.5-point home favorite over No. 4 Ole Miss at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (3:30 p.m. ET), with the total set at 58.5 after the Gators outlasted Auburn 44-39 and the Rebels beat former coach Lane Kiffin's LSU 32-24.
- SportsLine Projection Model simulated the matchup 10,000 times and projects 51 combined points, with the Under hitting in 68% of simulations; the model is 22-19 on top-rated college football money-line picks this season.
- Ole Miss may be without star running back Kewan Lacy, listed as doubtful, while senior quarterback Trinidad Chambliss enters at 70% completions for 924 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions through three games.
- Florida quarterback Aaron Philo is completing 73.4% of passes for 721 yards and six touchdowns with two rushing scores, and running back Jadan Baugh leads the ground game with 54 carries for 458 yards and eight touchdowns.
- Ole Miss is 2-0 against ranked opponents and 3-0 overall (1-0 SEC), playing its first road game; Florida is 3-0 (1-0 SEC), 2-0 at home, and facing its first ranked opponent of the 2026 season.
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Why it matters: Florida's 3.5-point spread hinges heavily on whether Ole Miss can absorb the likely absence of top back Kewan Lacy on the road; with the Under hitting in 68% of model simulations, bettors weighing Jadan Baugh's eight-touchdown form against Chambliss's 70% completion rate face a sharp contrast between a run-heavy Florida attack and a pass-oriented Ole Miss offense that has still won two ranked matchups.
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