Texans vs. Chargers betting trends, picks: Matchup of struggling teams to make NFL history for wrong reasons — SkimNews
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- Houston is a 4.5-point DraftKings favorite over the Chargers, with 99% of the handle and 79% of bets on the Texans; on the 40.5 total, 87% of the money and 54% of the bets are on the Under.
- The Texans-Chargers matchup brings teams with a combined 2-12 record into Week 9, the worst mark in such a Week 9-or-later matchup between teams coming off playoff appearances; they combined for 23-11 in the 2025 regular season.
- Texans playoff pricing moved from -180 before the season, implying a 64.3% chance, to +190 at 34.5%, while their win total fell from 9.5 to 7.5.
- Houston's defense has allowed 6.9 more points per game than last season, rising from 17.4 to 24.3, the largest such increase in the NFL.
- Justin Herbert has thrown 10 interceptions and five touchdown passes with none in the fourth quarter; he is the only quarterback in NFL history with an interception and multiple sacks in each of his team's first seven games.
- The Chargers' offense has dropped 7.5 points per game, from 21.7 to 14.1—the NFL's largest decline—and Los Angeles is 0-6-1 straight-up and against the spread in seven games, the first such start since Washington in 1998.
- SportsLine projects a 26-16 Houston win; the columnist leans Houston after its bye but takes Chargers +11.5 at home because it offers a better price than the Texans' moneyline.
Why it matters: For bettors, Houston's downturn has already repriced the game: its implied playoff probability fell from 64.3% to 34.5%, and the win total moved from 9.5 to 7.5. With 87% of money on the Under and a 26-16 projection, the writer backs Houston's win while taking Chargers +11.5.
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