Texans 0-3 With NFL's Worst Luck; Collins Set to Return — SkimNews
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- Houston Texans are 0-3 but tied with the Chargers for the NFL's worst luck rating per TeamRankings, and climbed from 0-3 to the postseason in 2025 — the only 0-3 team not grouped with the league's bottom tier thanks to an elite defense and talent gap.
- Tom Bliss (NFL senior manager, football operations data scientist) found the Texans lead the league in opponent dropped passes, opponent field goals and extra points, and fumble recoveries — each by a factor of nearly three.
- Kamari Lassiter dropped a Week 1 interception that would have sealed a win over Buffalo; instead the Bills drove for a game-winning touchdown, and the Colts' 53-yard go-ahead FG by Spencer Shrader in Week 3 was named the second-most impactful play of the season by luck differential (-33.3% for Houston).
- Nico Collins led Houston with 7 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 before a Week 2 hamstring injury shelved him; C.J. Stroud has more than twice as many completions and yards when targeting Collins as any other receiver per Next Gen Stats.
- Stroud ranks as the second-worst passer in the NFL under pressure, making Collins' return to practice this week — and a likely Sunday activation against Dallas — the clearest fix for an offense that scored 6 and 17 points in its last two games.
- The Texans' remaining schedule is tied for the third-easiest by opponent win percentage and seventh-easiest by ESPN FPI, with only six of 12 remaining opponents above .500 (Jaguars x2, Giants, Browns, Ravens, Steelers, Eagles) and six below (Cowboys, Titans x2, Chargers, Colts, Commanders, Packers).
- DeMeco Ryans could reach his fourth divisional round in as many years as head coach if Houston replicates last season's late-season heater, though a nine-game closing streak would be even harder to duplicate this time.
Why it matters: The Texans draw the NFL's third-easiest remaining schedule, and Collins' return directly addresses Stroud's second-worst-under-pressure ranking in the league. The luck-regression case is concrete: Houston leads the NFL in opponent dropped passes, opponent FGs and extra points, and fumble recoveries by a factor of nearly three, meaning even modest mean-reversion would flip close losses into wins.
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