Texans Top Barnwell's 0-2 NFL Playoff Rankings — SkimNews
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- Bill Barnwell ranks all eight 0-2 NFL teams ahead of Week 3, slotting the Houston Texans at No. 1 with a 41.8% chance of reaching the postseason via ESPN's FPI, followed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 16.6%.
- The Houston Texans earned the top spot largely because last season's squad started 0-3 and went 12-2 to make the playoffs, losing only to the eventual top-seeded Broncos (AFC) and Seahawks (NFC).
- Houston's defense has regressed sharply from 2025, when it led the NFL in points allowed per drive (1.5) after Week 3 — this year's unit ranks 19th in points allowed per drive and 23rd in EPA per play, with Josh Allen torching it for 334 yards and four touchdowns in Week 1.
- The Texans' running game ranks 28th in success rate, 29th in EPA per snap and 30th in yards per carry on designed runs, despite GM Nick Caserio adding David Montgomery, Trent Brown, Wyatt Teller and others to finally build a ground game around C.J. Stroud.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers are No. 2 at 16.6% after a Week 1 loss to the Bengals — in which they moved the ball but fumbled four times, with Cincinnati recovering all four — followed by an embarrassing home loss to the Browns that included a multihour lightning delay and a botched two-minute drill.
- The Atlanta Falcons get the first shot among 0-2 teams at a win with a Thursday night game against Green Bay, but Barnwell ranks them outside the top spot on his list of most likely winless teams to turn things around.
- Historical odds are brutal: since 2002, only 4 of 102 teams (3.9%) that started 0-3 reached the postseason, with two of them Tomlin-era Steelers squads that fell short of the then-12-team playoff field and two being Texans editions (2018 and 2025).
- The Week 3 headliner among 0-2 teams is the Texans' trip to Indianapolis to play the Colts — the only matchup between winless teams, effectively a de facto playoff game for a Houston club whose margin for error shrinks dramatically if it falls to 0-3.
Why it matters: Houston faces Indianapolis in the only Week 3 matchup of 0-2 teams, and with only a 3.9% historical advancement rate for 0-3 starters, a loss would leave the Texans — whose 2025 defense led the NFL and whose offseason was built around finally fixing the run game — in historically dire territory despite ESPN's FPI still giving them the best odds of any winless team.
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