Colts vs. Commanders predictions, odds, time: 2026 Week 4 NFL London game picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Indianapolis Colts face the Washington Commanders at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London on Sunday (9:30 a.m. ET), the first NFL London game of the 2026 season, with Indianapolis installed as a 4.5-point favorite and the total at 47.5.
- The Commanders will start Marcus Mariota in place of Jayden Daniels, who remains out with a dislocated elbow; receiver Terry McLaurin (hamstring) was added to Friday's injury report as questionable.
- The Colts' defense ranks last in the NFL in yards allowed while the Commanders rank 27th, with each team conceding more than 30 points per game — trailing only Detroit leaguewide.
- The SportsLine model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, projects 54 combined points and sees the Over 47.5 hit in 61% of simulations, with Washington receivers Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs (276 yards, 4 TDs) and Colts rusher Jonathan Taylor (258 yards, 4 TDs) fueling the offensive projection.
- The model enters Week 4 on a 54-43 run on top-rated NFL picks since 2024 and is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites over its lifetime.
Why it matters: Both teams enter 2-1 ATS and feature bottom-tier defenses, making this a high-total matchup the model leans into — but the Commanders are down to Mariota at quarterback and potentially without their top receiver, which shifts the offensive ceiling despite the porous defensive numbers. Bettors backing the Over are betting against two quarterbacks in very different situations.
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