Analyst: Iran unlikely to attack US debt holders
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- Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared Sunday that all holders of US Treasury bonds are legitimate targets of violent reprisals, but the article argues Iran is unlikely to follow through because the threat pool extends far beyond US adversaries.
- Major US debt holders include Japan (the largest), South Korea, Germany, the UK, and China, with Chinese holdings falling from a 9% peak in 2011 to roughly 2% today — making any attack on debt holders diplomatically costly for Tehran.
- Trump's Iran campaign has failed to produce a rally-round-the-flag effect, with approval ratings stuck in the mid-30s to low-40s, broad disapproval from Democrats and independents, and even some former supporters breaking with the president.
- Gas prices have risen roughly 30% since the conflict began as Iran restricts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, turning fuel costs into a tool of political pressure on American consumers.
- Iran's prior escalations include attacks on US bases as far away as Cyprus, strikes on Israeli communities near secretive nuclear research sites, and threats to destroy critical infrastructure in Gulf nations.
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains firmly in control of Iranian domestic politics, with the opposition divided and no realistic path to regime change short of a large-scale invasion that would risk extraordinary casualties on both sides.
Why it matters: Iran is wagering that American voters won't tolerate sustained pain at the pump — gas prices are up roughly 30% — and that Trump's mid-30s approval ceiling will force Washington to seek an exit before Tehran has to make concessions. By threatening debt holders it cannot realistically attack, Iran signals resolve cheaply while its real weapons are the Strait of Hormuz and the slow grind of domestic US political erosion.
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