Kevala: CA front-of-meter solar could meet 32% of peak — SkimNews
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- Kevala found California's three IOU distribution substations could support 3,112 5-MW solar-and-storage installations serving 15,560 MW of local load, with systems under 5 MW adding another 1,976 MW.
- SCE showed the largest absolute potential: 1,657 5-MW installations serving 9,188 MW, or 37% of the California Energy Commission's mid-case 2032 summer peak forecast.
- SDG&E saw the highest proportional impact, with 326 installations meeting 1,788 MW — 39% of the CEC's 2032 forecast for its comparatively small distribution system.
- PG&E could host 1,129 5-MW installations meeting 6,560 MW (26% of its 2032 forecast), and spokesperson Paul Doherty said the findings align with the utility's own planning around distributed resources.
- Doherty pointed to PG&E's SAVE virtual power plant and the newly announced Google-funded SHARE VPP as existing programs leveraging customer-owned energy resources and flexible demand.
- Kevala cautioned the analysis represents technical potential rather than a development forecast, noting it did not assess constraints such as land availability.
- California's legislature has sent Gov. Gavin Newsom a bill requiring the CPUC to develop a community solar-and-storage program that would compensate assets at avoided cost of generation.
Why it matters: California IOUs are planning more than $110 billion in five-year capital spending amid wildfire liability risk and transmission strain, with PG&E already deferring $2 billion in planned spending. A pending community solar-and-storage bill on Newsom's desk would compel the CPUC to value front-of-meter DERs in procurement — potentially letting the state's three big utilities offset a third of costly evening peak demand without major transmission upgrades.
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