BTC price four-year trend calls for $76K as analysis says Bitcoin 'not broken'
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- Bitcoin research shows BTC price action is tracking previous cycles, currently trading 'compressed' below a four-year 'adoption structure' trend line that implies a fair value of about $76,400 — a roughly 20% discount to that level.
- Analyst David Eng wrote on X on Wednesday that Bitcoin 'is not broken' but is 'compressed below its adoption structure,' arguing price action runs on both a 400-day cyclical clock and a cleaner ~4-year adoption-structure clock.
- Bitcoin's 400-day simple moving average (SMA) has served as bull-market support with no daily candle closes below it this cycle or last, per Eng's analysis.
- Eng's chart also places Bitcoin's Power Law price in 'uncharted territory' at nearly $135,000, highlighting the gap between the adoption-structure model and the long-term power-law trajectory.
- Trader and analyst Rekt Capital estimated the ongoing Bitcoin bear market is approximately 71% complete, anchoring his thesis to the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) currently at $63,900.
- Rekt Capital warned that a June monthly close near $62,000 would confirm a breakdown below the 50-month EMA; if July turns green, the EMA could flip to new resistance, and 'August would cancel out July and send Bitcoin into downside continuation.'
Why it matters: For Bitcoin traders, the $76,400 adoption-structure level identified by Eng and the $63,900 50-month EMA tracked by Rekt Capital bracket the next major decision zone — a roughly $25,000 corridor where bulls need to defend to keep the four-year cycle thesis intact. Rekt Capital's 71% bear-market-completion read is a double-edged signal: it implies most of the drawdown may be behind, but his August 'downside continuation' scenario means a failed July reclaim of the 50-month EMA could re-accelerate losses toward that $63,900 floor.
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