2026 Open Championship odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions by golf model that's nailed 17 majors
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- Scottie Scheffler is the +500 favorite at the 2026 Open Championship, per FanDuel odds, followed by Rory McIlroy at +800; Scheffler is the defending champion while Jordan Spieth won the event the last time Royal Birkdale hosted in 2017.
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1400) is flagged as a fade pick by SportsLine's model despite being the third favorite, with the model projecting he barely finishes inside the top 5 after placing 27th at Royal Birkdale previously and missing the cut in 2024.
- Ludvig Aberg (+2700) sits as a top-3 contender on the model's projected leaderboard despite never winning a major, buoyed by a top-25 Open finish last year and a T4 at the 2026 PGA Championship.
- The 2026 Open Championship tees off Thursday, July 16, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, with all three 2026 major winners — McIlroy (Masters), Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) and Wyndham Clark (U.S. Open) — in the field.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and nailed 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters — its fifth Masters in a row — plus last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship.
- The model is targeting a longshot priced around 35-1 that the article does not name, directing readers to SportsLine for the full projected leaderboard and picks.
Why it matters: For bettors, the model's track record of 17 majors correct gives its 2026 Open picks weight — but the framing of Fleetwood as a fade and Aberg as a top-3 contender directly contradicts the FanDuel odds board, where each sits among the top favorites. Royal Birkdale's prior results (Spieth's 2017 win, Fleetwood's 27th place) provide the basis for the model's contrarian calls on a course where English players have historically contended.
