US Burned Half Its Key Missiles in Iran War
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- CSIS estimates the US has expended up to half of certain key defensive and offensive missiles in this year's conflict with Iran, diminishing the White House's ability to project power and emboldening adversaries.
- Patriot interceptors account for the most alarming depletion: the US likely held roughly 2,500 before the war began in February, and open-source estimates suggest more than 1,200 have already been fired.
- Each Patriot round costs about $4 million and takes roughly 36 months to produce from scratch, though annual production is ramping from 350 interceptors to a targeted 2,000 by decade's end.
- Beyond Patriots, significantly depleted stockpiles include the Tomahawk cruise missile, AASM, ATACMS, PrSM, and JASSM (offensive), plus THAAD, SM-3, and SM-6 interceptors (defensive), each carrying 2-3 year replacement timelines.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also been expending large numbers of their own Patriot interceptors defending against Iranian missile strikes, per news reports cited in the interview.
- Pentagon officials say they likely have enough for this conflict, but Tom Karako of CSIS warned that pulling munitions from the Indo-Pacific to sustain the Iran war leaves gaps that could tempt Chinese aggression against Taiwan.
- Karako added that funneling more weapons to Ukraine has become 'a much harder choice' than it was two months ago given the deepening inventory crunch.
Why it matters: The US likely began the Iran war with about 2,500 Patriot interceptors and may have burned through 1,200-plus, at roughly $4 million per round and three years to replace. That math now constrains every other US military commitment: arming Ukraine gets harder, Pacific stockpiles have been drawn down to feed the Middle East, and Karako warns the gaps could tempt a Chinese move on Taiwan.
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