Record El Niño Stalls Atlantic Hurricanes, Fuels Pacific — SkimNews
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- El Niño has already reached 3°C above average — the warmest since satellite sea-surface-temperature records began roughly 50 years ago — with every climate model projecting continued warming toward 4°C by November or December, per Berkeley Earth.
- The Atlantic hurricane season has produced zero hurricanes so far, breaking the previous record for latest first hurricane (September 11), when the seasonal average calls for four hurricanes by this point in the year.
- University of Miami's Brian McNoldy called the Atlantic season "really, really suppressed, basically due to that very strong El Niño," explaining that wind shear and dry, sinking air across the region have prevented hurricanes from forming in the deep tropics.
- Hurricane Polo intensified from tropical storm to Category 5 in less than 24 hours and is projected to make landfall in Baja California early next week, fueled by climate-warmed waters and the nearby El Niño.
- Tropical Storm Nolo strengthened into a hurricane Thursday and could dump several feet of rain on Hawai'i.
- Scientists project El Niño's heat could kill 451,000 people globally in the first nine months of the event, while the phenomenon boosts rainfall in California and the Southwest and slashes it across Southeast Asia, the Amazon, and parts of Africa — historically the source of the largest economic and human impacts.
- Berkeley Earth's Zeke Hausfather framed the event as "a little glimpse of what the planetary climate will look like" as future El Niños layer onto already-elevated baseline temperatures roughly 20 years from now.
Why it matters: A record-breaking El Niño is previewing the climate baseline expected within roughly 20 years, exposing governments to simultaneous extremes — a historically quiet Atlantic and a Cat 5 Pacific rapid-intensifier — while its projected 451,000 deaths and drought-driven crop failures threaten the world's subsistence farmers within months. Preparation demands stockpiled food, financial transfers for failed harvests, and expanded firefighting capacity before landscapes turn to tinder.
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