The incoming ‘super’ El Niño will create chaos around the world. And we are far from ready for it | Bill McGuire — SkimNews
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- Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at UCL, writes that the incoming El Niño is forecast to peak at an "astonishing" 4°C later this year — more than double the 2°C threshold for a "super" El Niño, and so extreme that the term "hyper" may be more appropriate.
- The UK Met Office has warned of a stormy, wet autumn and early winter, with McGuire noting the 2015-16 El Niño produced the most extreme floods in UK history as a baseline for what may lie ahead, and that trees weakened by summer drought could topple in coming storms.
- India is already experiencing its weakest monsoon in 20 years due to the strengthening El Niño, with McGuire flagging further expected heatwaves, drought, and wildfires across south and southeast Asia, the Amazon, and much of Australia.
- California faces the risk of an ARkStorm megastorm scenario, which McGuire states could flood millions of homes and businesses, damage infrastructure long-term, and cause almost $1tn in economic losses — with tech companies in the state particularly exposed to knock-on effects.
- The 1997-98 El Niño — which peaked at 2.4°C — erased $5.7tn from global GDP, nearly triple the $2tn hit from the 2008 recession, and McGuire notes that economic suppression from a strong El Niño can persist for up to 14 years; the current event has already surpassed that peak at 2.7°C.
- McGuire states the El Niño's effects will extend well into 2027, with global average temperatures likely reaching at least 1.6°C above preindustrial levels and "quite possibly 1.7°C or more" — which would make next year the hottest ever recorded by a notable margin.
- McGuire criticizes the UK government for simultaneously advising citizens to stockpile food in preparation for El Niño impacts while preparing to greenlight additional North Sea fossil fuel extraction — a contradiction he calls "idiocy" that exemplifies "cognitive dissonance."
Why it matters: The 1997-98 El Niño, which peaked at 2.4°C, erased $5.7tn from global GDP, with economic suppression lasting up to 14 years; the current event has already hit 2.7°C and is forecast to reach 4°C. Documented near-term risks include UK flooding on a scale exceeding the 2015-16 record floods, California facing nearly $1tn in potential ARkStorm losses, and India enduring its weakest monsoon in 20 years — with the global economy bearing the heaviest indirect costs.
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