Middle East War Drives Global Coal Comeback
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- Rapidan Energy said the Middle East conflict caused the biggest oil disruption in history, with a large share of global supply offline for over a month after the Strait of Hormuz — normally carrying 20% of the world's oil — was effectively closed.
- Italy postponed closure of its coal-fired power plants by 13 years to 2038, reversing prior climate pledges, while Germany weighs whether to restart idled coal plants.
- South Korea has permitted expanded coal use when air pollution is low and LNG is scarce, with renewables supplying just 10% of its 2024 electricity versus a 32% global average.
- Indonesia, the world's largest coal exporter, is prioritizing domestic consumption over exports, likely tightening regional supply and lifting prices.
- Global coal consumption has risen roughly 1.3 billion tons since 2020 to 8.8 billion tons, driven largely by China and India and by post-Ukraine sanctions on Russian energy.
- Japan, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, and Taiwan have increased or are considering increased coal use as roughly 20% of natural gas supply remains blocked at Hormuz.
Why it matters: Italy's 13-year coal plant delay to 2038 and South Korea's renewable share of just 10% — versus 32% globally — expose how thin green capacity has become as a buffer against fossil-fuel shocks. The source warns this coal pivot could erase a decade of decarbonization gains, not from slow policy drift but from a single geopolitical rupture.
