Amazon Faces 'Godzilla' El Niño at Worst Possible Time
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- Scientists predict the peak of this El Niño will arrive between October and December, the worst possible window for the Amazon, coinciding with the end of the dry season when rivers are at their lowest and undergrowth is most flammable.
- This El Niño is forecast to be the strongest in 150 years by a "mind-blowing margin," with three previous events (1997-98, 2015-16, 2023-24) already proving disastrous for the Amazon.
- The Amazon is still struggling to recover from the 2023-24 El Niño, which left major rivers at record-low levels, sparked unprecedented fire outbreaks, and caused mass deaths of dolphins and fish.
- A third of the Amazon is now degraded by farming, mining, and human-caused climate disruption, leaving trees and undergrowth more flammable and vulnerable to "megafires," with some areas at risk of tipping beyond the point of no return.
- Brazil's government has responded with satellite monitoring, enforcement operations, and firefighting investment, producing the lowest burned-area level since records began in 1985 last year, while Indigenous communities are forming their own firefighting units for deeper forest regions.
- Carlos Nobre of the University of São Paulo warned the Amazon must be prepared from now through at least March 2027 due to a three-month lag between Pacific Ocean warming and temperature rises elsewhere.
- The UN predicts 49 million more people will likely face acute hunger because of El Niño, while global food prices sit at a three-year high, partly worsened by fuel inflation tied to the US-Israeli attack on Iran.
Why it matters: With a third of the Amazon already degraded and the forest still recovering from the 2023-24 El Niño, this drought could push vast areas past the point of no return, disrupting rainfall and agriculture across South America. The UN warns 49 million more people globally will face acute hunger, and global food prices are already at a three-year high — a direct hit to both regional stability and global food supply.
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