Barnwell predicts the NFL playoffs: Eight returning teams, six newcomers and a Super Bowl pick — SkimNews
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- Bill Barnwell projects eight returning playoff teams and six newcomers for the 2026 NFL postseason, grounding his picks in historical data showing about 56% of playoff teams (roughly 8 of 14) return each year since 2002; he's constrained to picking five returning division winners, three returning wild-card teams and three reigning division champs who will miss the playoffs entirely.
- Seattle Seahawks picked to repeat as NFC West champions despite the Rams' star-studded offseason additions of Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson; Seattle went 14-3, led the league in DVOA and beat the Rams twice in three tries last season.
- Philadelphia Eagles projected to win the NFC East for a third straight year under Jalen Hurts, buoyed by Lane Johnson's return from injury and a young defense that added Riq Woolen and Jonathan Greenard during the offseason.
- New England Patriots picked to hold the AFC East despite a tougher 2026 schedule that still ranks as the 11th-easiest slate in the league per ESPN's Football Power Index; stars Drake Maye, Christian Gonzalez and A.J. Brown are expected to anchor the roster.
- Denver Broncos projected as an AFC wild card; Bo Nix jumped from 18th to 11th in Total QBR from the first to the second half of 2025, and Denver's 24-10 record since the start of 2024 ranks third-best in the NFL.
- Pittsburgh Steelers picked as an AFC wild card under new coach Mike McCarthy, who replaces the departed Mike Tomlin; Aaron Rodgers is expected to play what would be his final NFL season with a roster that Barnwell calls underrated in the trenches.
Why it matters: Barnwell's framework deliberately forces three 2025 division winners to be picked as playoff misses — a concrete constraint that distinguishes the column from typical prediction lists and gives each pick stakes. His Seahawks-over-Rams call directly defies the offseason narrative built around LA's four defensive additions.
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